Credit Score: Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images. Visualized: Jimmy Garoppolo (10) of the San Francisco 49ers calls a play in huddle.

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The chances of Super Dish 54 mosting likely to overtime were +1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook since Sunday afternoon.Before the Chiefs as well as 49ers started, Evan Abrams checked out the background as well as varieties of wagering "yes" on the Super Dish OT prop wager.

Throughout Wild Card weekend break, 2 of the 4 video games mosted likely to overtime. Ever since, the 4 Divisional Round video games as well as 2 Championship game video games finished in law.

So what are the probabilities we obtain one more overtime video game in Miami? Allow's have a look at the background of overtime as well as its connection to the playoffs as well as the Super Dish.

Background of Overtime

Just one of the previous 53 Super Bowls have actually mosted likely to overtime: When the Patriots routed the Falcons, 28-3, in Super Dish 51 late in the 3rd quarter then racked up 25 unanswered factors — — consisting of a game-tying goal and also two-point conversion to compel overtime.

Tom Brady as well as the Patriots won the coin throw as well as drove down the area, without also dealing with a 3rd down. Then James White racked up the game-winning goal to finish the greatest resurgence in Super Dish background.

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6 of the 53 Super Bowls have actually do with a margin of 3 factors, 3 do with a margin of 7 as well as one do with a margin of 8. 8 of those cumulative 10 video games included a minute at the end of the video game when overtime was feasible offered the margin, yet it took till the 2016 period for it to take place.

Jim Davis/ World team. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) jumps as he forges taking the breeze in Super Dish LI.

The Patriots have actually been associated with the previous 5 Super Bowls that can have gone (or did go) to overtime: 36, 38, 39, 42 as well as 51.

The Probabilities Behind Overtime

The probabilities that there will certainly be overtime in Super Dish 54 are +1000, as well as -2500 that there will not be. So if you bet $100 on an overtime duration, you would certainly win $1,000 as well as return $1,100 in overall.

Getting rid of the vig from the chances itself, +1000 relates to roughly a 9% opportunity to money.

With overtime just happening when in the Super Dish's 53-year background, allow's expand this lens to the routine period and also playoffs.


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The Mathematics Behind Overtime

Overtime happening simply as soon as in 53 Super Bowls benefits a 1.9% price, while the 306 times overtime has actually taken place in the 2,560 regular-season video games over the previous years benefits a 12% price.

With such a huge space in between the percent of video games to visit overtime in the Super Dish vs. routine period, the evident following layer is the playoffs. The video games are tighter, the groups are much better and also there's in theory a much better opportunity for an added duration.

10 of the 109 championship game over the previous years have actually mosted likely to overtime, helpful for a 9.2% price — — a virtually 3% decline from the normal period.

Allow's do a fast wrap-up… …

12% of regular-season video games most likely to overtime, which ought to relate to regarding a +730 wager.9.2% championship game most likely to overtime, which must correspond to regarding a +1000 or 10-1 wager.1.9% of Super Bowls have actually mosted likely to overtime, which ought to correspond to concerning a 50-1 slim chance (+5000 ).

If you balance out the normal period pct and also the playoff pct (12% and also 9.2%), the 10.6% standard, which would certainly relate to regarding an +850 wager is right according to the marketplace, which is +1000.